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April 29, 2008



can u say petro dollar warfare


Josh Strupp

A bunch of non-sense.

This run up in crude prices is primarily due to the weak dollar. To put this in perspective, Europe has seen a relatively small increase in gas prices in the last year. The dollar's most likely at it's bottom. These guys are alarmists. You are more likely to see $90/barrel oil than even $150/oil in 2-3 years.

Even if we do see $10.00/gallon at the pump in the next 2-3 years (pretty much impossible), you and I have bigger problems than getting to and from work cheaply.

Let's not jump off the deep end here.


Quite nicely written actually, i like it. :)

J. Strupp


J. Strupp

"Mr. Brodrick's $200 oil forecast is largely predicated on a combination of pretty flat supply and rip-roaring demand."

The problem here is that Mr. Brodrick doesn't take into account the fact that oil was seriously over-valued at $140/barrel even if there is, "rip-roaring demand" in China and India (In fairness I think, given current market conditions, Mr. Brodrick should have another chance to re-evaluate that "rip-roaring demand" statement).

The fact is that back in April, there was ZERO economic data to support the $200/barrel oil predictions.

John Michlig

I sincerely hope you're correct.

J. Strupp

I think we all do.

My concern is that crude oil/gasoline spreads are extremely wide right now. This was the case before the hurricanes. I haven't seen current inventory data yet but my guess is that the gasoline futures are way out of whack too considering the significant drop in fuel consumption world wide as of late. You should see gas prices drop like a stone this winter, barring another major refinery shutdown. We'll see.

J. Strupp

...and now we have steadly rising oil and gas inventories even though refineries are shut down for seasonal maintainance. Couple that, with the global economic crisis, which has destroyed global demand for crude oil across the board, OPEC's lagging response to cutting global oil production and the steadily strengthening dollar. Add to that the increases in crude oil supply from new oil infrastructure coming online in Canada and the northcentral U.S. and you can look for below $50/barrel crude by Christmas.

Hope the gas stations kept their "1's" because sub $2.00 gas in on it's way back.

Can't see any end in sight either.

Just a guess of course.

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