I had a feeling while pumping gas this past week that I was passing a landmark. Sub-$4 gas for the last time; right down the road it was already $4.23 a gallon.
County Exec Scott Walker? Asleep at the wheel.
Here comes a capital "c" Crisis because Wisconsin is simply unprepared to cope with the approaching new reality - - we're talking about re-goldplating the Zoo Interchange, for heaven's sake. Meanwhile, Chicago, Racine, Milwaukee and Madison still exist as commercial centers "connected" by nothing more than asphalt when there should be trains - yes, expensive trains! - running continuously between those points.
Still think $10 a gallon can't happen? Perhaps before the summer is out....
Will we see an exodus from far-flung suburbs as commuters tally their weekly gas bill? I already hear from people who are looking at changing either their work or home situations based on expensive car commutes. Combine this with the downward housing spiral; are a rash of abandoned subdivisions - old and new - ahead?
The days of "happy motoring" may be over.
Some people have a pretty good crystal ball. James Howard Kunstler, author of The Geography of Nowhere, wrote this last October:
County Exec Scott Walker? Asleep at the wheel.
Here comes a capital "c" Crisis because Wisconsin is simply unprepared to cope with the approaching new reality - - we're talking about re-goldplating the Zoo Interchange, for heaven's sake. Meanwhile, Chicago, Racine, Milwaukee and Madison still exist as commercial centers "connected" by nothing more than asphalt when there should be trains - yes, expensive trains! - running continuously between those points.
Still think $10 a gallon can't happen? Perhaps before the summer is out....
Will we see an exodus from far-flung suburbs as commuters tally their weekly gas bill? I already hear from people who are looking at changing either their work or home situations based on expensive car commutes. Combine this with the downward housing spiral; are a rash of abandoned subdivisions - old and new - ahead?
The days of "happy motoring" may be over.
Some people have a pretty good crystal ball. James Howard Kunstler, author of The Geography of Nowhere, wrote this last October:
Most American towns, including my own, are obsessed to the point of mania with the issue of parking and more generally the management of cars, and much of their spending is directed to those ends. Municipal leaders (and the public they serve) have no idea what kind of problems the nation faces with oil. Because life in the USA has worked a particular way all their lives, they assume that it will continue to operate that way. Not only will they be disappointed as happy motoring spirals into history, but they will create a lot mischief in the meantime in planning things based on faulty assumptions.
My own town, for instance, relies heavily on tourism, in particular tourism based on happy motoring. There is not the slightest apprehension among the people here, or our leaders in city hall, that automobile-based tourism may not be happening as soon as five years from now. All our political energy is being expended in fighting about what kind of parking structures we will build (with borrowed money) and where to put them, and how these things might incorporate some secondary uses, such as police offices. We have also been debating plans for the expansion of our modest convention center -- in connection with added parking structures. It seems to me that one of the first things to go as the US economy contracts, along with its energy supply, will be activities like boat shows and optometrist's conventions.
Now this town happens to be on a railroad line that connects New York City to Montreal. Before 1950, it was the main way that people came to this town. These days, we get one train a day in each direction. The trains are invariably late, and not just a little late, but hours late. The track bed is in miserable shape and, of course, Amtrak is a sort of soviet-style management organization. There is no awareness among the public here, or our leaders, that we would benefit from improving the passenger railroad service, and around the state of New York generally there is no conversation about fixing the railroads. (Governor Elliot Spitzer is preoccupied these days with arranging to give driver's licenses to people who are in the country illegally.) We are going to pay a large penalty for these failures of attention.
Another aspect of all this has to do with our assumptions about land development. Here in my town, and elsewhere around the country, the assumption is that suburban development will continue just as it has the past sixty years. This assumption is shared both by the developers themselves and their opponents. The developers expect the current "downturn" to reverse before long. From the opponents' point of view, the assumption is based on their legitimate fears and heartaches about what they've seen heedless development do to the American landscape. Consequently, whatever mental energy is left after the parking debates get tabled is dedicated to fighting over projected suburban expansion.
My personal view about this is apparently radical -- though I am a man of modest habits and philosophy. My view is that the suburban project, per se, in the United States is over, finished. Like, totally. You can stick a fork in it. What you see is basically all that we're going to get. Not only do we not need anymore of it, but we have way too much of what is already on the ground. We don't need anymore suburban housing pods, and the ones already out there are going to hemorrhage value (and usefulness) as far ahead as anybody can imagine. We need more retail like we need 300-million holes in our heads. Ditto suburban office capacity. Ditto new roads and highways.
"Some people have a pretty good crystal ball."
On the other hand,
"(Kunstler could be off the mark; he predicted technological Armageddon after Y2K.)"
http://fullyarticulated.typepad.com/sprawledout/2008/04/good-bye-cheap.html
Posted by: Terrence Berres | May 25, 2008 at 07:07 PM
Hence, "pretty good" rather than "foolproof."
Posted by: John Michlig | May 25, 2008 at 07:40 PM
There's no "hence" if "pretty good" means maybe as good as a coin flip.
Posted by: Terrence Berres | May 26, 2008 at 11:43 AM
On a rainy night while driving, passenger Jane says to driver Bill:
"How's your visibility?"
Bill answers: "Pretty good."
Hence, "pretty good" has little to do with a "coin flip," and "hence" applies.
Always a pleasure, TB. ;)
Posted by: John Michlig | May 26, 2008 at 12:56 PM
You've reported Kunstler's driving on two rainy nights. Last time, he drove off the road.
Posted by: Terrence Berres | May 27, 2008 at 07:03 AM
I'll take Kunstler's record over that of the present administration, which stands dripping wet in a downpour citing studies that say we are experiencing sunny weather.
Posted by: John Michlig | May 27, 2008 at 07:59 AM
Your "crystal ball" reference was about Kunstler's record predicting the future, not describing the present.
Posted by: Terrence Berres | May 27, 2008 at 08:33 AM
And - - anticipating future events has nothing to do with recognizing present circumstances that others choose to ignore?
You bring up a good point, though: The present administration is unable to describe the present. Pretty simple.
Posted by: John Michlig | May 27, 2008 at 08:50 AM
"And - - anticipating future events has nothing to do with recognizing present circumstances that others choose to ignore?"
That would attribute Kunstler's bad call on Y2K to willful blindness, rather than a lack of particularly good foresight.
Posted by: Terrence Berres | May 27, 2008 at 10:43 AM