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November 19, 2008


J. Strupp

"Carstensen will likely announce the first outbuilding tenants later this month, with the businesses scheduled to start opening early next year, Rosenberg said."

Wanna bet the list of names is extremely short and rather uninspiring? My guess is that most of the names that are on that list will go down within a year. Hope I'm wrong but I wouldn't bet me on it.

This country has not yet begun to see that demise of retail development on the levels needed to bring supply back in line with demand. As the economy continues to drastically erode over the next year, retail development vacancies will mirror residential vacanies (tell me what 76th ST. will look like now that Steve & Barry's, Linens n' Things and Circuit City are being liquidated). It's the next leg down and it'll be just as bad. The scary thing about this is that consumer demand will take many years to reach the levels necessary to support the amount of retail development already in place. Not to mention the financing for future retailers will be extremely tight for years as well.

As I've said before, they should just plow Fountains of Franklin over. It's done. The "Shoppes" development has no choice but to proceed but it will stand half vacant for years.

These are the times.

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